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It is no longer news that Nigeria is the largest mobile market in Africa. In a recent report from the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC), Nigeria’s total wireless subscriber base increased by 55.9% in 2008, reaching 62.99 million at the end of the year. According to TeleGeography, NCC has released individual figures for the Nigeria’s mobile operators for the first time. In the report, MTN Nigeria ended 2008 with 23.08 million customers, Zain Nigeria (formerly Celtel) recorded 17.2 million, overtaking Glo Mobile in Q3 due to Globacom’s loss of 610,000 subscribers during the period, finishing 2008 with just over 16 million customers. Nigeria’s dominance in Zain’s operationsIt’s interesting to note that Nigeria’s mobile market has emerged Zain’s main driver of customer growth throughout its 22 operations in Africa and the Middle East. Just last week, Zain released its consolidated financial results for the year ended 31 December 2008, which shows that Nigeria is one of the top viable markets for Zain. At the end of 2008, Nigeria ranked first with a total of 17,196,000 customers (55% growth since 2007), while Iraq comes second with 9,681,000 customers and Sudan ranked thrid with 5,190,000 customers. Again, in terms of revenue, Nigeria was in the second position with earnings of over $1.2 million. But the question is: Will the credit crunch affect the mobile industry in terms of number of subscribers and financial revenues? Probably not! According to Saad Al Barrak, Zain Group CEO, “overall, due to our massive network investment across all operations, we expect and are targeting a 30 per cent increase on many of our financial indicators in 2009.” What to expect at the end of 2009I think it’ll be a major mobile war for the operators, as they all struggle for who’ll be the market leader. Although, MTN Nigeria remains the leading mobile operator in terms of subscriber base, which is currently at 23 million. Could Globacom overtake MTN Nigeria and Zain Nigeria subscriber base by the end of 2009? Well, I’m of the opinion that this is very possible. Globacom has teamed up with Alcatel-Lucent in a network expansion deal that would target 45 million subscribers. The contract will involve the expansion of coverage to a further 3,000 sites and also of its transmission network by 10,000 km. Will Etisalat Nigeria Be Competitive in 2009?It is hard to say if Etisalat Nigeria could emerge as the fourth largest mobile operator by the end of 2009, as the network only gained 400,000 subscribers in its Q1. At the moment, Visafone is the fourth largest mobile operator with 2.21 million subscribers as as 2008. This means that, Etisalat Nigeria has to continue giving out their SIM cards for free with free airtime (which they started recently) if they are to beat Visafone by the end of 2009. In fact, whether Etisalat’s Nigeria subscriber base will top that of its 20 operations in Africa and the Middle East is yet to be seen. A Look at the CDMA Mobile OperatorsWhile the three major mobile operators in Nigeria (MTN, Zain and Globacom) are struggling for dominance, Visafone became Nigeria’s largest CDMA operator and the fourth largest network operator altogether. Launched commercially in February 2008, the network added 980,000 customers in Q4, only its fourth quater since it started operations. Again, Multilinks finished second with 1.99 million subscribers after adding 510,000 customers in Q4 of 2008. But with the 100% acquistion of Multilinks by South Africa's Telkom, could the network surpass Visafone’s subscriber base in 2009? Already, they have set a target for 10 million subscribers by December 2009. Will they achieve this? Starcomms was third with 1.16 million subscribers having gained 360,000 customers during the same period. And Reltel (now Zoom mobile) added 70,000 customers to finish with 700,000 subscribers in its second quarter of operation. My Predictions for 2009In the light of the above analysis, I’m predicting that MTN Nigeria will lose their market leadership to Globacom Nigeria, thus making Globacom Nigeria the largest mobile operator in Nigeria. That means that, Zain Nigeria will become third and Etisalat Nigeria will become the fourth largest mobile operator beating Visafone’s subscriber base. My guess is that Visafone will stretch their market leadership as the leading mobile operator with CDMA technology, leaving Multilinks Telkom and Starcomms to struggle for second position at the end of 2009. This will leave Zoom mobile behind the mobile train network. Now, what are your own thoughts?
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